Thursday, October 27, 2016

If you are presented with 2 buttons A and B, either of which you must press. Pressing A will cause the death of 1 person while pressing B will cause the death of 10 people with a probability of 0.2. Which one will you choose and why?

Psychological researchers have found it depends how you frame the question. People will choose B if it is framed positively -- 80% probability all 10 will survive.
They will choose A if B is framed negatively, as in the question.

People are overly averse toward negative outcomes and overly favorable toward positive ones.

Advertisers and politicians use that knowledge to influence public opinion.

Immediacy also makes a difference. The question does not say deaths will occur today. Suppose the buttons are two treatments for a disease with long latency. Button A will result in 10% deaths twenty years hence. Button B will lead to 20% deaths. Everyone would choose button A because the decision would be based on reason rather than emotional feeling of guilt.

We use emotion for near-term decisions, logic for long-term decisions. Poor people who refuse to plan ahead are rejecting logic and making  all decisions with emotion.


Read other answers by Robert Wagner on Quora: Read more answers on Quora.

from Quora http://ift.tt/2eJCdBd

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