Do you think Fareed Zakaria's prediction that Saudi Arabia will not be able to build an atomic weapon in ten years is plausible?

Saudi Arabia is a mid-sized country without any tradition of nuclear physics research or high-tech weapons development. It is much smaller than confirmed nuclear powers. Its science and engineering potential is currently far below that of Israel (which is widely thought to posses nuclear weapons). Large uranium enrichment facilities would be noticed, just like Iran's centrifuges were noticed. Even if given a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia has no way of finding out if it works without tests that will be very noticeable. This would also jeopardize ongoing US weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, which are relatively more important given the many threats faced by Saudi Arabia.

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