Decades before Pearl Harbor, Japan knew they couldn't take on the full military and industrial might of Russia. Nevertheless, they went into the Russo-Japanese War, and in the aftermath of a decisive victory at the Battle of Tsushima, they were able to negotiate Treaty of Portsmouth with the aide of US president Theodore Roosevelt. This served as a template for much of the subsequent strategic thinking in both the military and in Tokyo.
- What victory looks like: Japan and Russia negotiating the Treaty of Portsmouth in 1905
When they took on America, what they hoped for was a decisive naval victory similar to that of Battle of Tsushima, followed by peace negotiations (probably facilitated through Stalin in Moscow) that would allow them to remove trade embargoes, and consolidate their gains in both China and South East Asia.
- Probably the most optimistic estimate for Japanese war planners.
Their plan B was probably some kind of war of attrition, where they compensate their lack of industry and technology with bushido and determination, and inflict a kind of casualty to the US military that would be unacceptable to the US population back home. The Battle of Iwo Jima was supposed to show an example of what's to come if the US wanted to prolong the war.
- Plan B for Japanese war planners
What happened was that they never got the decisive victory that they hoped for, and the US successfully turned its industry for war. They have also not anticipated the effects of strategic bombing, in particular night-time firebombing, which completely ruined Japan with minimal US casualties. Lastly, they did not anticipate the USSR breaking the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact, and quickly overran the Kwantung Army in a matter of weeks in the Soviet–Japanese War.
- Not part of the plan.
All the events evolved to the point that the unconditional surrender to the US became the best possible option by mid 1945.
Read other answers by Jason Li on Quora:
- Could the U.S. have blockaded Japan into surrender in 1945?
- Why did Japan surrender in WWII?
- Why did Switzerland never participate in any of the World Wars?
from Quora http://ift.tt/2jJ1ezk
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